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October 16, 2026
Partner, Chief Economist
Let’s call the ongoing correction in AI assets "The AI Reset," where investors mark down their expectations for future cash flows.
What are the implications for the economy?
A sharp reset in AI expectations could undermine corporate confidence, trigger a pullback in capex and weigh on GDP growth, just as higher oil prices, tariffs and tighter immigration restrictions push inflation higher, raising the risk of a stagflationary environment in which growth slows even as price pressures persist.
Note: Bloomberg SHOK model scenario assumes a widening in global credit spreads of 10–30 bps, a 1–4% decline in US investment and a 1–3% decline in South Korean exports, with shocks phased in from 4Q26 and tapering through 4Q27. GDP impacts are shown as percentage deviations from baseline forecasts. Sources: Bloomberg SHOK, Apollo Chief Economist
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